In-The-Know Real Estate Blog October 18, 2022

The Latest on Supply and Demand in Housing

Over the past two years, the substantial imbalance of low housing supply and high buyer demand pushed home sales and buyer competition to new heights. But this year, things are shifting as supply and demand reach an inflection point.

The graph below helps tell the story of just how different things are today.

This year, buyer demand has eased as higher mortgage rates and mounting economic uncertainty moderated the market. This slowdown in demand is clear when you look at the red bar on the graph. It uses the latest data from ShowingTime to illustrate how showings (an indicator of buyer demand) have softened by just over 12% compared to the same time last year.

Now for a look at how housing supply has changed, turn to the green bar. It uses data from realtor.com to show active listings are up nearly 27% compared to last year. That’s because the moderation of demand allowed housing inventory to increase in 2022.

What Does This Inflection Point Mean for Buyers? 

If you’re thinking of buying a home, you’ll have less competition and more options than you would have had last year. Enjoy having more homes to choose from in your home search and lean on a trusted real estate professional to understand how the increase in supply has also increased your negotiation power. That professional can talk you through the opportunities and challenges buyers face in today’s shifting market. You may be surprised to find they’re different than they were a year ago.

What Does This Inflection Point Mean for Sellers?

If you’re looking to sell your house, know that inventory is still low overall. That means, if you work with an agent to price your house based on current market value, it will still sell despite the inventory gains and moderating buyer demand this year. That’s because there are still buyers out there who want to move, and your house may be exactly what they’re looking for.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, the best place to turn to for information on today’s supply and demand is a trusted real estate professional. Let’s connect so you know what’s happening in our local market and what that means for you.

Reno-Sparks Market Report October 11, 2022

October 2022 Market Report

** Data in the October 2022 Market Report reflect market activity from September 2022 compared to the previous month and year.  Information is gathered from the Reno-Sparks Association of Realtors® (RSAR) for the Greater Reno-Sparks region via Northern Nevada Regional Multiple Listing Service (www.nnrmls.com).  Data accounts for single-family resale residences only, and excludes townhouses/condos, manufactured/modular and new construction.

  • The Median Sales Price (MSP) in Reno-Sparks combined dropped again for the forth consecutive month, down 5.3% from $565,000 to $535,000. The MSP is just 0.5% higher than in September 2021.

  • The Median Sales Price (MSP) in Reno and Sparks both declined month over month, down 9.3% in Reno and down 2.1% in Sparks.  The MSP in Reno is 1.8% lower compared to September last year and 2% higher in Sparks.

  • Closed Sales inched up again about 2% compared to August 2022 and are down 22.7% compared to September last year. 

  • The graph above illustrates the breakdown of Closed Sales by Price Point.

  • Median Sold Price per Square Foot was $301/SF, down another 2.9% compared to August 2022 and is exactly the same as it was one year ago.

  •  The Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) is the number of months it would take to sell through the available inventory at the current rate of sales.  The MSI in September was 2.9 MSI, meaning that if the rate of sales continued at the same rate as it did in September, the entire housing inventory would be depleted in 2.9 months.  The MSI in September 2022 was 4.6% faster month-over-month and is 160% slower than the same time last year.  Note; a “balanced market” is approximately 5-7 months supply.

  • The MSI in the luxury market ($1.5M+) dropped from 10 MSI to just over 7 MSI month-over-month.

  • Median Days to Contract has increased from 32 to 38, an 18.8% jump month-over-month, and 375% leap year-over-year. However… let’s take a look over the last several years… As noted in previous market reports, the Median Days to Contract is still WELL below the peaks of  2016, 2018, & 2019.

  • The side-by-side graphs above show the changes across all price points for the Median Days to Contract.

  • New Pending Sales decrease about 20% from August to September 2022.  There are also about 30% fewer New Pending Sales compared to last year.

  • 11.5% fewer New Listings hit the market in September 2022 compared to August 2022.  We also saw a 23.4% decline in New Listings compared to last year.

OTHER INTERESTING STATS TO KEEP AN EYE ON:

  • The % of Cash Purchases has dropped 10.3% month-over-month for all single family sales in Reno-Sparks and are 4.4% higher than last year22.8% of all sales in September 2022 were cash.

  • As a result of fatigue and frustration, Sellers have been pulling their homes from the market and/or allowing their listings to expire at the end of their listing period.  We have seen a 148.6% increase in Unsold Listings compared to September 2021.  

  • The number of Active Listings at the end of the month dropped slightly (down 3%) from August to September 2022.  The number of Active Listings at the end of the month is 101% higher than in September 2021 when inventory was at an all-time low.

  • 14% of all sales during September 2022 resulted in closing with prices above list price.  This stat has dropped 7.4% month-over-month and about 70% year-over-year, but is in line with normal activity compared to “pre-COVID” market conditions.

SUMMARY:

    • I have been describing the real estate market as “sloppy” at the moment.  While Sellers become more accustomed to potentially longer listing periods before receiving an acceptable offer, many Buyers have become hesitant about their purchases, with higher mortgage rates in play and fear that the market will continue to drop after they purchase.
    • Fear not!  The rapid appreciation experienced during the first 2 years of the pandemic appears to have ceased, but the market is not dead, the basic principles of supply and demand will still be at play in the long-run.
    • At the moment, the reality is that the housing inventory is still low and the rate of sales at 2.9 Months Supply of Inventory means for most price points, and so the market is still not considered “balanced.” It is technically considered to be a “Seller’s Market.”
    • More important than ever… Sellers must not over-price their properties when listing them for sale. Overpriced properties tend to sit longer and lose more value in the long-run due to the need for eventual significant price drops. Maintenance and proper preparation & staging are critical for successful sales as well.
    • And for Buyers… now is the time to exercise the option for Sellers to provide incentives to you that leverage your home-buying power and actually LOWER your monthly payment. Contact me today so I can explain how to accomplish this!

Do you need expert guidance for your next real estate purchase or sale?  As a Buyer, you have more negotiating power than you have in many years, so this may be the time to leverage your next purchase.  Sellers… Let’s meet to strategize about how to professionally prepare and price your property strategically in our marketplace.  I am here for you, whatever your real estate needs are.  Email me at dhallerbach@intero.com or reach by cell at 775-233-0682 so we can discuss the best plan for YOU!

~Denise Hallerbach, Broker-Owner, INTERO RENO.

 

 

In-The-Know Real Estate Blog October 11, 2022

Saving for a Down Payment? Here’s What You Should Know.

As you set out to buy a home, saving for a down payment is likely top of mind. But you may still have questions about the process, including how much to save and where to start.

If that sounds like you, your down payment could be more in reach than you originally thought. Here’s why.

The 20% Down Payment Myth

If you believe you have to put 20% down on a home, you may have based your goal on a common misconception. Freddie Mac explains:

“. . . nearly a third of prospective homebuyers think they need a down payment of 20% or more to buy a home. This myth remains one of the largest perceived barriers to achieving homeownership.”

Unless it’s specified by your loan type or lender, it’s typically not required to put 20% down. According to the latest Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median down payment hasn’t been over 20% since 2005. There are even loan types, like FHA loans, with down payments as low as 3.5%, as well as options like VA loans and USDA loans with no down payment requirements for qualified applicants.

This is good news for you because it means you could be closer to your homebuying dream than you realize. For more information, turn to a trusted lender.

Down Payment Assistance Programs Can Be a Game Changer

A professional will be able to show you other options that could help you get closer to your down payment goal. According to latest Homeownership Program Index from downpaymentresource.com, there are over 2,000 homebuyer assistance programs in the U.S., and the majority are intended to help with down payments.

A recent article explains why programs like these are helpful:

These resources can immediately build your home buying power and help you take action sooner than you thought possible.”

And if you’re wondering if you have to be a first-time buyer to qualify for these programs, that’s not always the case. According to an article from downpaymentresource.com:

“It is a common misconception that homebuyer assistance is only available to first-time homebuyers, however, 38% of homebuyer assistance programs in Q1 2022 did not have a first-time homebuyer requirement.

There are also location and profession-based programs you could qualify for as well.

Bottom Line

Saving for your down payment is an important first step on your home buying journey. Let’s connect today and make sure you have a trusted lender to help explore your options.

In-The-Know Real Estate Blog September 1, 2022

Buyers: You May Face Less Competition as Bidding Wars Ease

One of the top stories in recent real estate headlines was the intensity and frequency of bidding wars. With so many buyers looking to purchase a home and so few of them available for sale, fiercely competitive bidding wars became the norm during the pandemic – and it drove home prices up. If you tried to buy a house over the past two years, you probably experienced this firsthand and may have been outbid on several homes along the way.

But here’s the news you’ve been waiting for: data shows clear signs bidding wars are easing this year.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the average number of offers on recently sold homes has declined considerably over the past few months (see graph below):

The graph shows homes were seeing a high of around five offers earlier this year. But the latest data shows that average was down to just shy of three offers per recently sold home. This shift is happening largely because rising mortgage rates moderated buyer demand and slowed home sales, resulting in a growing supply of homes on the market. Essentially, more choices for buyers.

What This Means for You

If you put your home search on pause because you were outbid last year or because you didn’t want to deal with the peak intensity of bidding wars, you can breathe a welcome sigh of relief. While it’s still a sellers’ market, an uptick in inventory gives you a window of opportunity to jump back in. You may still be competing with some buyers, but it likely won’t be anything like it was just a few short months ago.

Bottom Line

If you put your plans on pause because of intense bidding wars in recent years, it may be time to kick off your home search. Today, bidding wars are easing and that may mean less competition for you as a buyer. If you’re serious about buying a home or making a move, let’s connect to get started today.

In-The-Know Real Estate Blog September 1, 2022

A Trusted Real Estate Advisor Provides Expert Advice

If you’re a homeowner or are planning to become one soon, you’re probably looking for clear information about today’s housing market. And if you’ve turned to the news or even just read headlines recently, you might feel like you’re left with more questions than answers. The best way to make sure you get what you need is to work with an expert.

Why You Want To Lean on a Trusted Professional

With any big milestone in life, it’s wise to seek advice from people who are experts in their field.  While you likely want that advice to be perfect, perfect simply isn’t possible. But professionals have the knowledge and experience to be able to provide you with the best advice for your situation.

For example, let’s say you need an attorney, so you seek out an expert in the type of law required for your case. They won’t immediately tell you how the case is going to end or how the judge or jury will rule. But what a good attorney can do is discuss the most effective strategies based on their experience and help you put a plan together. They’ll even use their knowledge to work with you to adjust as new information becomes available.

Similarly, the job of a trusted real estate professional is to give you the best advice they can. Just like you can’t find a lawyer to give you perfect advice, you won’t find a real estate professional who can either. That’s because it’s impossible to know exactly what’s going to happen throughout your transaction. But an expert real estate advisor knows market trends and the ins and outs of the homebuying and selling processes.

They’ll use that knowledge to explain both the national headlines and what’s happening in your local area. That way, you have the best of both worlds and can feel confident in your decision to buy or sell. Freddie Mac explains why having an expert on your side is so essential:

“The success of your home buying journey largely depends on the company you keep. . . . Be sure to select experienced, trusted professionals who will help you make informed decisions and avoid any pitfalls.”

With their expertise, a real estate advisor can anticipate what could happen next and work with you to put together a solid plan. Then, they’ll guide you through the process, helping you make decisions along the way. That’s the very definition of getting the best – not perfect – advice. And that’s the power of working with a real estate advisor.

Bottom Line

To get expert advice when you buy or sell a home this year, let’s connect today.

In-The-Know Real Estate Blog September 1, 2022

What Sellers Need To Know in Today’s Housing Market

If you’re thinking about selling your house, you may have heard about the housing market slowing down in recent months. While it’s still a sellers’ market, the peak frenzy the market saw over the past two years has cooled some. If you’re asking yourself if you’ve missed your chance to sell your house and make a move, the good news is you haven’t – motivated buyers are still out there. But you do need to price your house right for today’s market. Here’s why.

As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

Homes priced right are selling very quickly, but homes priced too high are deterring prospective buyers.”

It’s true buyer demand has slowed over the past few months as higher mortgage rates made it more expensive to buy a home. The result is fewer bidding wars and less competition among buyers (see visual below):

But don’t forget – that’s compared to the severely overheated market we saw over the past two years. According to the latest Confidence Index from NAR:

“. . . 39% of homes sold above list price, down from 51% a month ago and 50% a year ago.”

While this is a slower pace than even one month ago, serious buyers are still actively in the market, and they’re buying homes that are priced right. In fact, the Confidence Index also notes the average home is selling in just 14 days.

If you’re aiming to sell your house, be sure you’re working with your agent to price it for today’s housing market. As buyer demand softens, it’s important to understand this isn’t the same market as last year. It’s not even the same market as just a few months ago. But it is still a sellers’ market.

If you’re ready to sell your house, seek the advice of a real estate professional. In some cases, you’ll need to adjust your expectations accordingly to meet the market where it is today. Selma Hepp, Interim Lead, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains what’s happening and what it means when you sell:

Signs of a broader slowdown in the housing market are evident, . . . This is in line with our previous expectations and given the notable cooling of buyer demand due to higher mortgage rates. . . . Nevertheless, buyers still remain interested, which is keeping the market competitive — particularly for attractive homes that are properly priced.”

Bottom Line

While the housing market has cooled from its overheated frenzy, it’s still a sellers’ market. Let’s connect so you understand what’s happening with buyer demand and home prices in our local area as you get ready to enter the market.

In-The-Know Real Estate Blog May 27, 2020

Housing Market Positioned to Bring Back the Economy

All eyes are on the American economy. As it goes, so does the world economy. With states beginning to reopen, the question becomes: Which sectors of the economy will drive its recovery?  There seems to be a growing consensus that the housing market is positioned to be that driving force, the tailwind that is necessary.  Some may question that assertion as they look back on the last recession in 2008 when housing was the anchor to the economy – holding it back from sailing forward.  But even then, the overall economy did not begin to recover until the real estate market started to regain its strength.  This time, the housing market was in great shape when the virus hit.  As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist of First Americanrecently explained:

“Many still bear scars from the Great Recession and may expect the housing market to follow a similar trajectory in response to the coronavirus outbreak. But, there are distinct differences that indicate the housing market may follow a much different path. While housing led the recession in 2008-2009, this time it may be poised to bring us out of it.”

Fleming is not the only economist who believes this. Last week, Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, (@DrFrankNothaft) tweeted:

“For the first 6 decades after WWII, the housing sector led the rest of the economy out of each recession. Expect it to do so this time as well.”

And, Robert Dietz, Chief Economist for the National Association of Home Builders, in an economic update last week explained:

“As the economy begins a recovery later in 2020, we expect housing to play a leading role. Housing enters this recession underbuilt, not overbuilt… Based on demographics and current vacancy rates, the U.S. may have a housing deficit of up to one million units.”

Bottom Line

Every time a home is sold it has a tremendous financial impact on local economies. As the real estate market continues its recovery, it will act as a strong tailwind to the overall national economy.