Over the past two years, the substantial imbalance of low housing supply and high buyer demand pushed home sales and buyer competition to new heights. But this year, things are shifting as supply and demand reach an inflection point.
The graph below helps tell the story of just how different things are today.
This year, buyer demand has eased as higher mortgage rates and mounting economic uncertainty moderated the market. This slowdown in demand is clear when you look at the red bar on the graph. It uses the latest data from ShowingTime to illustrate how showings (an indicator of buyer demand) have softened by just over 12% compared to the same time last year.
Now for a look at how housing supply has changed, turn to the green bar. It uses data from realtor.com to show active listings are up nearly 27% compared to last year. That’s because the moderation of demand allowed housing inventory to increase in 2022.
What Does This Inflection Point Mean for Buyers?
If you’re thinking of buying a home, you’ll have less competition and more options than you would have had last year. Enjoy having more homes to choose from in your home search and lean on a trusted real estate professional to understand how the increase in supply has also increased your negotiation power. That professional can talk you through the opportunities and challenges buyers face in today’s shifting market. You may be surprised to find they’re different than they were a year ago.
What Does This Inflection Point Mean for Sellers?
If you’re looking to sell your house, know that inventory is still low overall. That means, if you work with an agent to price your house based on current market value, it will still sell despite the inventory gains and moderating buyer demand this year. That’s because there are still buyers out there who want to move, and your house may be exactly what they’re looking for.
If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, the best place to turn to for information on today’s supply and demand is a trusted real estate professional. Let’s connect so you know what’s happening in our local market and what that means for you.
** Data in the October 2022 Market Report reflect market activity from September 2022 compared to the previous month and year. Information is gathered from the Reno-Sparks Association of Realtors® (RSAR) for the Greater Reno-Sparks region via Northern Nevada Regional Multiple Listing Service (www.nnrmls.com). Data accounts for single-family resale residences only, and excludes townhouses/condos, manufactured/modular and new construction.
- The Median Sales Price (MSP) in Reno-Sparks combined dropped again for the forth consecutive month, down 5.3% from $565,000 to $535,000. The MSP is just 0.5% higher than in September 2021.
- The Median Sales Price (MSP) in Reno and Sparks both declined month over month, down 9.3% in Reno and down 2.1% in Sparks. The MSP in Reno is 1.8% lower compared to September last year and 2% higher in Sparks.
- Closed Sales inched up again about 2% compared to August 2022 and are down 22.7% compared to September last year.
- The graph above illustrates the breakdown of Closed Sales by Price Point.
- Median Sold Price per Square Foot was $301/SF, down another 2.9% compared to August 2022 and is exactly the same as it was one year ago.
- The Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) is the number of months it would take to sell through the available inventory at the current rate of sales. The MSI in September was 2.9 MSI, meaning that if the rate of sales continued at the same rate as it did in September, the entire housing inventory would be depleted in 2.9 months. The MSI in September 2022 was 4.6% faster month-over-month and is 160% slower than the same time last year. Note; a “balanced market” is approximately 5-7 months supply.
- The MSI in the luxury market ($1.5M+) dropped from 10 MSI to just over 7 MSI month-over-month.
- Median Days to Contract has increased from 32 to 38, an 18.8% jump month-over-month, and 375% leap year-over-year. However… let’s take a look over the last several years… As noted in previous market reports, the Median Days to Contract is still WELL below the peaks of 2016, 2018, & 2019.
- The side-by-side graphs above show the changes across all price points for the Median Days to Contract.
- New Pending Sales decrease about 20% from August to September 2022. There are also about 30% fewer New Pending Sales compared to last year.
- 11.5% fewer New Listings hit the market in September 2022 compared to August 2022. We also saw a 23.4% decline in New Listings compared to last year.
OTHER INTERESTING STATS TO KEEP AN EYE ON:
- The % of Cash Purchases has dropped 10.3% month-over-month for all single family sales in Reno-Sparks and are 4.4% higher than last year. 22.8% of all sales in September 2022 were cash.
- As a result of fatigue and frustration, Sellers have been pulling their homes from the market and/or allowing their listings to expire at the end of their listing period. We have seen a 148.6% increase in Unsold Listings compared to September 2021.
- The number of Active Listings at the end of the month dropped slightly (down 3%) from August to September 2022. The number of Active Listings at the end of the month is 101% higher than in September 2021 when inventory was at an all-time low.
- 14% of all sales during September 2022 resulted in closing with prices above list price. This stat has dropped 7.4% month-over-month and about 70% year-over-year, but is in line with normal activity compared to “pre-COVID” market conditions.
- I have been describing the real estate market as “sloppy” at the moment. While Sellers become more accustomed to potentially longer listing periods before receiving an acceptable offer, many Buyers have become hesitant about their purchases, with higher mortgage rates in play and fear that the market will continue to drop after they purchase.
- Fear not! The rapid appreciation experienced during the first 2 years of the pandemic appears to have ceased, but the market is not dead, the basic principles of supply and demand will still be at play in the long-run.
- At the moment, the reality is that the housing inventory is still low and the rate of sales at 2.9 Months Supply of Inventory means for most price points, and so the market is still not considered “balanced.” It is technically considered to be a “Seller’s Market.”
- More important than ever… Sellers must not over-price their properties when listing them for sale. Overpriced properties tend to sit longer and lose more value in the long-run due to the need for eventual significant price drops. Maintenance and proper preparation & staging are critical for successful sales as well.
- And for Buyers… now is the time to exercise the option for Sellers to provide incentives to you that leverage your home-buying power and actually LOWER your monthly payment. Contact me today so I can explain how to accomplish this!
Do you need expert guidance for your next real estate purchase or sale? As a Buyer, you have more negotiating power than you have in many years, so this may be the time to leverage your next purchase. Sellers… Let’s meet to strategize about how to professionally prepare and price your property strategically in our marketplace. I am here for you, whatever your real estate needs are. Email me at email@example.com or reach by cell at 775-233-0682 so we can discuss the best plan for YOU!
~Denise Hallerbach, Broker-Owner, INTERO RENO.
Owning a home is a major financial milestone and an achievement to take pride in. One major reason: the equity you build as a homeowner gives your net worth a big boost. And with high inflation right now, the link between owning your home and building your wealth is especially important.
If you’re looking to increase your financial security, here’s why now could be a good time to start on your journey toward homeownership.
Owning a Home Is a Key Ingredient for Financial Success
A report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) details several homeownership trends, including a significant gap in net worth between homeowners and renters. It finds:
“. . . the net worth of a homeowner was about $300,000 while that of a renter’s was $8,000 in 2021.”
To put that into perspective, the average homeowner’s net worth is roughly 40 times that of a renter’s. This difference shows owning a home is a key step in achieving financial success.
Equity Gains Can Substantially Boost a Homeowner’s Net Worth
The net worth gap between owners and renters exists in large part because homeowners build equity. When you own a home, your equity grows as your home appreciates in value and you make your mortgage payments each month. As a renter, you don’t have that same opportunity. A recent article from CNET explains:
“Homeownership is still considered one of the most reliable ways to build wealth. When you make monthly mortgage payments, you’re building equity in your home . . . When you rent, you aren’t investing in your financial future the same way you are when you’re paying off a mortgage.”
“Building home equity can help you increase your wealth over time, . . . A home is one of the only assets that have the potential to appreciate in value as you pay it down.”
In other words, when you own your home, you have the advantage of your mortgage payment acting as a contribution to a forced savings account that grows in value as your home does. And when you sell, any equity you’ve built up comes back to you. As a renter, you’ll never see a return on the money you pay out in rent every month.
Owning a home is an important part of building your net worth. If you’re ready to start on your journey to homeownership, let’s connect today.
If you’re following the news, chances are you’ve seen or heard some headlines about the housing market that don’t give the full picture. The real estate market is shifting, and when that happens, it can be hard to separate fact from fiction. That’s where a trusted real estate professional comes in. They can help debunk the headlines so you can really understand today’s market and what it means for you.
Here are three common housing market myths you might be hearing, along with the expert analysis that provides better context.
Myth 1: Home Prices Are Going To Fall
One piece of fiction many buyers may have seen or heard is that home prices are going to crash. That’s because headlines often use similar, but different, terms to describe what’s happening with prices. A few you might be seeing right now include:
- Appreciation, or an increase in home prices.
- Depreciation, or a decrease in home prices.
- And deceleration, which is an increase in home prices, but at a slower pace.
The fact is, experts aren’t calling for a decrease in prices. Instead, they forecast appreciation will continue, just at a decelerated pace. That means home prices will continue rising and won’t fall. Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:
“. . . higher mortgage rates coupled with more inventory will lead to slower home price growth but unlikely declines in home prices.”
Myth 2: The Housing Market Is in a Correction
Another common myth is that the housing market is in a correction. Again, that’s not the case. Here’s why. According to Forbes:
“A correction is a sustained decline in the value of a market index or the price of an individual asset. A correction is generally agreed to be a 10% to 20% drop in value from a recent peak.”
As mentioned above, home prices are still appreciating, and experts project that will continue, just at a slower pace. That means the housing market isn’t in a correction because prices aren’t falling. It’s just moderating compared to the last two years, which were record-breaking in nearly every way.
Myth 3: The Housing Market Is Going To Crash
Some headlines are generating worry that the housing market is a bubble ready to burst. But experts say today is nothing like 2008. One of the reasons why is because lending standards are very different today. Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst for HousingWire, explains:
“As recession talk becomes more prevalent, some people are concerned that mortgage credit lending will get much tighter. This typically happens in a recession, however, the notion that credit lending in America will collapse as it did from 2005 to 2008 couldn’t be more incorrect, as we haven’t had a credit boom in the period between 2008-2022.”
During the last housing bubble, it was much easier to get a mortgage than it is today. Since then, lending standards have tightened significantly, and purchasers who acquired a mortgage over the last decade are much more qualified than they were in the years leading up to the crash.
No matter what you’re hearing about the housing market, let’s connect. That way, you’ll have a knowledgeable authority on your side that knows the ins and outs of the market, including current trends, historical context, and so much more.
With all the headlines and buzz in the media, some consumers believe the market is in a housing bubble. As the housing market shifts, you may be wondering what’ll happen next. It’s only natural for concerns to creep in that it could be a repeat of what took place in 2008. The good news is, there’s concrete data to show why this is nothing like the last time.
There’s a Shortage of Homes on the Market Today, Not a Surplus
The supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation.
For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to tumble. Today, supply is growing, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available.
The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to show how this time compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 3.0-months’ supply at the current sales pace.
One of the reasons inventory is still low is because of sustained underbuilding. When you couple that with ongoing buyer demand as millennials age into their peak homebuying years, it continues to put upward pressure on home prices. That limited supply compared to buyer demand is why experts forecast home prices won’t fall this time.
Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed During the Crash
During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. The graph below showcases data on the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers Association(MBA). The higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage.
Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home. Back then, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices.
Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“Credit standards tightened in recent months due to increasing economic uncertainty and monetary policy tightening.”
Stricter standards, like there are today, help prevent a risk of a rash of foreclosures like there was last time.
The Foreclosure Volume Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash
The most obvious difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been on the way down since the crash because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM Data Solutions to help tell the story:
In addition, homeowners today are equity rich, not tapped out. In the run-up to the housing bubble, some homeowners were using their homes as personal ATMs. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up. When home values began to fall, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the amount they owed on their mortgage was greater than the value of their home. Some of those households decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a wave of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at considerable discounts that lowered the value of other homes in the area.
“In total, mortgage holders gained $2.8 trillion in tappable equity over the past 12 months – a 34% increase that equates to more than $207,000 in equity available per borrower. . . .”
With the average home equity now standing at $207,000, homeowners are in a completely different position this time.
If you’re worried we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, the graphs above should help alleviate your concerns. Concrete data and expert insights clearly show why this is nothing like the last time.
There’s no denying the housing market has delivered a fair share of challenges to homebuyers over the past two years. Two of the biggest hurdles homebuyers faced during the pandemic were the limited number of homes for sale and the intensity and frequency of bidding wars. But those two things have reached a turning point.
“New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up 6% above one year ago. Home sellers in many markets across the country continue to benefit from rising home prices and fast-selling homes. That’s prompted a growing number of homeowners to sell homes this year compared to last, giving home shoppers much needed options.”
This is encouraging news. More homes coming onto the market give you a greater chance of finding one that checks all your boxes.
Buyer Competition Moderating Helps Inventory Grow Even More
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says inventory growth is happening not just because there’s an increase in the number of listings coming onto the market, but also because buyer demand has moderated some in light of higher mortgage rates and other economic factors:
“There has been a pickup in the inventory that we’ve seen recently, but it’s not from a big increase in new listings . . . but rather a slowdown in the pace of sales. And remember that months’ supply measures the inventory of sale relative to the pace of sales. Same inventory, fewer sales, means more months’ supply.”
Basically, the market is shifting away from the frenzy of buyer competition seen during the pandemic, and that’s helping available inventory grow. In their latest forecast, realtor.com also mentions the moderation of demand as a key factor and projects the inventory growth should continue:
“As rising inflation and mortgage rates bring U.S. housing demand back from the 2021 frenzy, . . . inventory will grow double-digits over 2021 and offer buyers a better-than-expected chance to find a home.”
How This Impacts You
The combination of more homes coming onto the market and a slower pace of home sales means you’ll have more options to choose from as you search for your next home. That’s great news if you’ve been searching for a while with little to no luck. Just remember, there isn’t a sudden surplus of inventory, just more homes to choose from than even a few months ago. So, you’ll still want to be decisive and move fast when you find the right home for you.
And when you do, you may be faced with less competition from other buyers too. If you’ve been waiting to jump into the market because the intensity of the bidding wars was intimidating or if you’ve been outbid on several homes, this moderation could help make the homebuying process a bit smoother. It’s not that it’ll be easy or that bidding wars are a thing of the past – that’s not the case. But it won’t feel nearly as impossible.
As the housing market begins its shift back toward pre-pandemic levels, you could have a unique opportunity in front of you. With moderating levels of buyer competition and more homes actively for sale, your home search may have gotten a bit less challenging. Let’s connect to begin the process today.
** Data in this the June Market Report reflect market activity from MAY 2022 compared to the previous month and year. Information is gathered from the Reno-Sparks Association of Realtors® (RSAR) for the Greater Reno-Sparks region via Northern Nevada Regional Multiple Listing Service (www.nnrmls.com). Data accounts for single-family resale residences only, and excludes townhouses/condos, manufactured/modular and new construction.
- Month-Over-Month, the Median Sales Price in Reno-Sparks ticked up again another 3.4% from $595,000 to $615,000. This also represents a 23% increase since May 2021. These stats are nearly identical from the previous last TWO months’ market report.
- While the Median Sales Price (MSP) in Reno was unchanged month-over-month at $630,000, the MSP in Sparks increased 3.6% and was $570,000 in May 2022. Compared to the same time last year, the MSP increased 14.5% and 25.7% in Reno and Sparks respectively.
- The number of single family homes that sold in Reno-Sparks during the month of May 2022 is just 5% fewer than last year, and has increased 4.4% since April 2022.
- The above graph illustrates the breakdown of single family homes that sold by price-point. Only 23 units sold for under $400k.
- The Sold Price per Square Foot, bumped up again about 1.8% month-over-month and has jumped 18% year-over-year.
- The graph above shows the Median Sold Price per Square Foot by Price Range. As usual, properties that sold for more than $1.5M had a the highest Median Sale Price per Square Foot at $468/SF.
- Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), a calculation of the rate of sales, moved from 0.8 MSI to 1.2 MSI to 1.5 MSI over the last few months. Month-over-month, the MSI increase by 23% and year-over-year it increased by about 120%. The current MSI indicates that if sales continue at the same pace they kept during April of 2022, and no new listing are added to the market, the inventory of single family homes would be “sold out” in approximately 1 month. A “balanced market” is approximately 5-6 MONTHS supply, so although we are starting to see a slowing in the rate of sales, we still have ground to cover to get to that balanced market. Of all the numbers to watch, MSI is one of the most important indicator for market shifts.
- The Months Supply of Inventory observed by Price Range was around 3 months supply for homes that sold under $300k) and for homes in the luxury market that sold over $1.5 Million).
- The median days from Listing to Accepted Offer (Days to Contract) bumped up 16.7% from 6 to 7 month-over-month, and up 40% year-over-year.
- The graph above illustrates the homes selling under $750 still moved relatively quickly during May 2022.
- New Pending Sales increased in May 2022 dropped minimally from 506 to 490, 3.2% a decrease since April 2022. There are 18.7% fewer new contracts compared to last year.
- At 735, the # of New Listings was relatively flat month-over-month, but is 18.4% higher than the same time last year.
- At $615,000, The Median Sales Price in Reno-Sparks, NV, increased 3.4% month-over-month and jumped 23% year-over-year.
- New Pending Sales and New Listings were relatively flat compared to March-April. Usually, the trend of New Pending Sales and New Listings increases through the Spring. The market has begun to show signs of slowing.
- Inflation and rising mortgage interest rates appear to be the leading factors for causing many Buyers these days to think twice about making a purchase at this time. Inventory is not moving as quickly has it has in recent months and years.
- Economic strain, inflation, high gas-prices, insane taxes and a higher cost of living is still causing many Californians to continue to move from the Golden State in search for relieved on their wallets. Reno-Sparks’ close proximity to California and favorable tax climate continues put Nevada in a unique position compared to the rest of the US.
- Our real estate market in Northern Nevada is slowing, but not dead, So while it is taking a little longer to accept an offer, the prices have not been impacted at this time.
- Also, do keep in mind that a balanced market is 5-6 Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), and in May 2022, the MSI was 1.5 MSI, so we are a ways off from that balanced market environment.
Do you need expert guidance for your next real estate purchase or sale? I have had great success with helping my Buyers navigate the ever changing market and get them into contract AND helping my Sellers get top-dollar on their sales!! I am here for you, whatever your real estate needs are. Email me at firstname.lastname@example.org or reach by cell at 775-233-0682 so we can discuss the best plan for YOU! Thank you.
~Denise Hallerbach, Broker-Owner, INTERO RENO.
As mortgage rates started to rise this year, many homeowners began to wonder if the value of their homes would fall. Here’s the good news. Historically, when mortgage rates rise by a percentage point or more, home values continue to appreciate. The latest data on home prices seems to confirm that trend.
According to data from CoreLogic, home price appreciation has been re-accelerating since November. The graph below shows this increase in home price appreciation in green:
This is largely due to an ongoing imbalance in supply and demand. Specifically, housing supply is still low, and demand is high. As mortgage rates started to rise this year, many homebuyers rushed to make their purchases before those rates could climb higher. The increased competition drove home prices up even more. Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:
“Home price growth continued to gain speed in early spring, as eager buyers tried to get in front of the mortgage rate surge.”
“. . . the swift move up in mortgage rates . . . doesn’t mean home prices are about to crash. In fact, every major real estate firm with a publicly released forecast model . . . still predicts home prices will climb further this year.”
What This Means for You
If you’re thinking about selling your house, you should know you have a great opportunity to list your home and capitalize on today’s home price appreciation. As prices rise, so does the value of your home, which gives your equity a big boost.
History shows rising mortgage rates have not had a negative impact on home prices. Now is still a great time to sell your house thanks to ongoing price appreciation. When you’re ready to find out how much equity you have in your current home and what’s happening with home prices in your local area, let’s connect.