In-The-Know Real Estate Blog December 1, 2022

Why There Should Not Be a Flood of Foreclosures Coming to the Housing Market

With the rapid shift that’s happened in the housing market this year, some people are raising concerns that we’re destined for a repeat of the crash we saw in 2008. But in truth, there are many key differences between what’s happening today and the bubble in the early 2000s.

One of the reasons this isn’t like the last time is the number of foreclosures in the market is much lower now. Here’s a look at why there won’t be a wave of foreclosures flooding the market.

Not as Many Homeowners Are in Trouble This Time

After the last housing crash, over nine million households lost their homes due to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they gave it back to the bank. This was, in large part, because of more relaxed lending standards where people could take out mortgages they ultimately couldn’t afford. Those lending practices led to a wave of distressed properties which made their way into the market and caused home values to plummet.

But today, revised lending standards have led to more qualified buyers. As a result, there are fewer homeowners who are behind on their mortgages. As Marina Walsh, Vice President of Industry Analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), says:

For the second quarter in a row, the mortgage delinquency rate fell to its lowest level since MBA’s survey began in 1979 – declining to 3.45%. Foreclosure starts and loans in the process of foreclosure also dropped in the third quarter to levels further below their historical averages.”

There Have Been Fewer Foreclosures over the Last Two Years

While you may have seen recent stories about the number of foreclosures rising today, context is important. During the pandemic, many homeowners were able to pause their mortgage payments using the forbearance program. The program gave homeowners facing difficulties extra time to get their finances in order and, in many cases, work out a plan with their lender.

With that program, many were concerned it would result in a wave of foreclosures coming to the market. That fear didn’t materialize. Data from the New York Fed shows there are still fewer foreclosures happening today than before the pandemic (see graph below):

That means, while there are more foreclosures now compared to last year (when foreclosures were paused), the number is still well below what the housing market has seen in a more typical year, like 2017-2019.

And most importantly, the number we’re seeing now is still far below the number we saw during the market crash (shown in the red bars in the graph). The big takeaway? Don’t let a headline in the news mislead you. While foreclosures are up year-over-year, historical context is essential to understanding the full picture.

Most Homeowners Have More Than Enough Equity To Sell Their Homes

Many homeowners today have enough equity to sell their homes instead of facing foreclosure. Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, the average homeowner has gained record amounts of equity in their home. And if they’ve stayed in their homes even longer, they may have even more equity than they realize. As Ksenia Potapov, Economist at First Americansays:

Homeowners have very high levels of tappable home equity today, providing a cushion to withstand potential price declines, but also preventing housing distress from turning into a foreclosure. . . the result will likely be more of a foreclosure ‘trickle’ than a ‘tsunami.’”

A recent report from ATTOM Data explains it by going even deeper into the numbers:

“Only about 214,800 homeowners were facing possible foreclosure in the second quarter of 2022, or just four-tenths of one percent of the 58.2 million outstanding mortgages in the U.S. Of those facing foreclosure, about 195,400, or 91 percent, had at least some equity built up in their homes.”

Bottom Line

If you see headlines about the increasing number of foreclosures today, remember context is important. While it’s true the number of foreclosures is higher now than it was last year, foreclosures are still well below pre-pandemic years. If you have questions, reach out to a real estate professional.

In-The-Know Real Estate Blog December 1, 2022

3 Ways You Can Use Your Home Equity

 

If you’re a homeowner, odds are your equity has grown significantly over the last few years as home prices skyrocketed and you made your monthly mortgage payments. Home equity builds over time and can help you achieve certain goals. According to the latest Equity Insights Report from CoreLogic, the average borrower with a home loan has almost $300,000 in equity right now.

As you weigh your options, especially in the face of inflation and talk of a recession, it’s important to understand your assets and how you can leverage them. A real estate professional is the best resource to help you understand how much home equity you have and advise you on some of the ways you can use it.  Here are a few examples.

1. Buy a Home That Fits Your Needs

If you no longer have the space you need, it might be time to move into a larger home. Or it’s possible you have too much space and need something smaller. No matter the situation, consider using your equity to power a move into a home that fits your changing lifestyle. 

If you want to upgrade your house, you can put your equity toward a down payment on the home of your dreams. And if you’re planning to downsize, you may be surprised that your equity may cover some, if not all, of the cost of your next home. A real estate advisor can help you figure out how much equity you have and how you can use it toward the purchase of your next home.

2. Reinvest in Your Current House

According to a recent survey from Point, 39% of homeowners would invest in home improvement projects if they chose to access their equity. This is a great option if you want to change some things about your living space but you aren’t ready to make a move just yet.

Home improvement projects allow you to customize your home to suit your needs and sense of style. Just remember to think ahead with any updates you make, as some renovations add more value to your home and are more likely to appeal to future buyers than others. For example, a report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows refinishing or replacing wood flooring has a high cost recovery. Lean on a local professional for the best advice on which projects to invest in to get the greatest return on your investment when you sell.

3. Pursue Your Personal Goals

In addition to making a move or updating your house, home equity can also help you achieve the life goals you’ve dreamed of. That could mean investing in a new business venture, retiring or downsizing, or funding an education. While you shouldn’t use your equity for unnecessary spending, leveraging it to start a business or putting it toward education costs can help you achieve other lifelong goals.

Bottom Line

Your equity can be a game changer. If you’re unsure how much equity you have in your home, let’s connect so you can start planning your next move.

In-The-Know Real Estate Blog December 1, 2022

What Buyers Need To Know About the Inventory of Homes Available for Sale

**The following information relates to national statistics (US), and are not intended to represent the current statistics in Reno-Sparks, Nevada.

If you’re thinking about buying a home, you’re likely trying to juggle your needs, current mortgage rates, home prices, your schedule, and more to try to decide if you want to jump into the market.

If this sounds like you, here’s one key factor that could help you with your decision: there are more homes for sale today than there were at this time last year.  According to Calculated Risk, for the week ending in November 18th, there were 47.7% more homes available for sale than there were at the same time in 2021.  (Again… these are national stats.) And having more options for your home search may be exactly what you need to feel confident about making a move.

Here’s a look at where the increased housing supply is coming from so you can get a better sense of what’s happening in the market today and what it means for you.

What Caused the Growth in Housing Inventory This Year?

The increase we’ve seen in housing supply this year isn’t from the source you think it is. Rather than an influx of recent homeowners listing their houses for sale (known as new listings), the primary reason the supply has grown is because homes are staying on the market a bit longer (known as active listings).

That’s happening because higher mortgage rates and home prices have helped moderate the peak frenzy of buyer demand, which has slowed down the pace of sales. And, as the pace of sales has eased, inventory has grown compared to the last couple of frenzy-paced market as a result.

The graph below uses data from realtor.com to show that it’s active listings, not new listings, that have driven the growth we’ve seen over the past few months:

And while overall inventory gains may slow down this winter due to typical housing market seasonality, you still have a chance to capitalize on the current supply.

What This Means for Your Home Search

Regardless of the source, the increase in available housing supply is good for buyers. More homes available for sale means you have more options to choose from as you search for your next home, and you may even have more time to consider them.

So, if you tried to buy a home last year and lost out in a bidding war or just couldn’t find something you liked, this may be the news you’ve been waiting for. If you start your search today, those additional options should make it less difficult to find a home you love, especially as some other buyers pause their search this holiday season.

Just remember, housing supply is still low overall, so it won’t suddenly be easy – it’ll just be less challenging than it was at this time last year. As a recent article from realtor.com says:

“Despite this improvement in the number of homes actively for sale, active listings still lag their pre-pandemic levels.”

The increase in housing supply helps put you in a great position to kick off the new year in your dream home. And who better to help you find it than a trusted, local real estate professional?

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to jump into the housing market and see what’s available in our local area, let’s connect.

Reno-Sparks Market Report November 14, 2022

November 2022 Market Report

** Data in the November 2022 Market Report reflect market activity from October 2022 compared to the previous month and year.  Information is gathered from the Reno-Sparks Association of Realtors® (RSAR) for the Greater Reno-Sparks region via Northern Nevada Regional Multiple Listing Service (www.nnrmls.com).  Data accounts for single-family resale residences only, and excludes townhouses/condos, manufactured/modular and new construction.

  • The Median Sales Price (MSP) in Reno-Sparks combined ticked up 1.8% from $530,320 to $540,000 months-over-month. The MSP is exactly the same as October last year!

  • The Median Sales Price (MSP) in Reno and Sparks both inched up month-over-month, up 3.7% in Reno and up 0.5% in Sparks.

  • Closed Sales dropped 21.7% compared to September 2022 and are down 34.7% compared to October last year. 

  • The graph above illustrates the breakdown of Closed Sales by Price Point.

  • Median Sold Price per Square Foot also ticked up 1% to $304/SF, and is 1.3% lower compared to one year ago.

  •  The Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) is the number of months it would take to sell through the available inventory at the current rate of sales.  The MSI in October 2022 was 3.4 MSI, meaning that if the rate of sales continued at the same rate as it did in September, the entire housing inventory would be depleted in 3.4 months.  The MSI in October 2022 was 15.5% slower compared to September 2022 and is 212.6% slower than the same time last year.  Note; a “balanced market” is approximately 5-7 months supply.

  • Over the last few months, the Months Supply of Inventory in the luxury market has exceeded the threshold for a balanced market (see light blue range for Balanced Market), pushing the $1.5M+ properties into an official “Buyer’s Market.”

  • Median Days to Contract has remained fairly constant now at 36 days from listing to contract, a 323.5% increase year-over-year. While the market feels very slow compared to the rapid moving COVID-19 years (2020-2021) our Median Days to Contract are still WELL below the peaks of  2012, 2016, 2018, & 2019.

  • The side-by-side graphs above show the changes across all price points for the Median Days to Contract.  All homes priced under $1.5M were on the market less than 40 days

  • New Pending Sales dipped 2.4%% from September to October 2022.  There are also about 40% fewer New Pending Sales compared to last year.  Again, look back over the last several years to realize that our market is now for pending sales is behaving fairly normally.

  • 23% fewer New Listings hit the market in October 2022 compared to September 2022.  We also saw a 32% decline in New Listings compared to last year.

OTHER INTERESTING STATS TO KEEP AN EYE ON:

  • 22.6% of all sales in Reno-Sparks were cash transactions. The % of Cash Purchases increased 22.3% month-over-month for all single family sales in Reno-Sparks and are is relatively unchanged compared to October 2021. 

  • Sellers continue to show signs of frustration as homes have not been selling as quickly as they have over the last couple of years.  Consequently, they many have been pulling their homes from the market and/or allowing their listings to expire at the end of their listing period. We have seen a 185% increase in Unsold Listings compared to the same time last year.  

  • The number of Active Listings at the end of the month dropped 9.5% from September to October 2022.  The number of Active Listings at the end of the month is 104% higher than in October 2021 when inventory was near an all-time low.

  • 14% of all sales during October 2022 resulted in closing with prices above list price.  This stat is relatively unchanged compared to September 2022 and about 64% lower compared to October last year but is in line with normal activity compared to “pre-COVID” market conditions.

SUMMARY:

    • As we head into the winter months, Buyers and Sellers are contemplating moves in a real estate market riddled with the fear of God repeatedly thrown at them from the media with low-inventory in a high interest rate climate, price reductions, potential for further drops in prices… How are Buyers are Sellers to move forward with greater confidence in the coming months and years?
    • Compared to the last couple of years, the market is not as bleak as the media would have us believe.  Looking back at the charts over the last several years, the real estate market in Reno-Sparks NOW looks remarkably similar to past years’ activities and trends. 
    • Go back to basicsIt’s about supply and demand.  Inventory has NOT skyrocketed during this very interesting time, and Buyers are STILL making moves to pick up properties here, especially in markets priced under $1.5M. When priced competitively, homes on the market now in Reno-Sparks ARE SELLING.  
    • Sellers… The winter months are not necessarily a bad time to list your home.  Historically, Buyers and Sellers are more willing to get the deal done because the parties are highly motivated during this season.  During winter you’ll enjoy less competition from competing Sellers in your neighborhood.
    • Now more than ever, maintenance and proper preparation & staging are critical for successful sales.  So if you are waiting until spring to hit the market, take advantage of the winter months to get your house great shape.
    • And Buyers… You may likely have more negotiating power than during the last couple of years.  As mentioned in last month’s report, now is the time to exercise the option for Sellers to provide incentives that leverage your home-buying power and actually LOWER your monthly payment. Contact me today so I can explain how to accomplish this!

Do you need expert guidance for your next real estate purchase or sale?  I am here for you, whatever your real estate needs are.  Email me at dhallerbach@intero.com or reach by cell at 775-233-0682 so we can discuss the best plan for YOU!

~Denise Hallerbach, Broker-Owner, INTERO RENO.

 

 

In-The-Know Real Estate Blog October 26, 2022

3 Graphs Showing Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t Like 2008

With all the headlines and talk in the media about the shift in the housing market, you might be thinking this is a housing bubble. It’s only natural for those thoughts to creep in that make you think it could be a repeat of what took place in 2008. But the good news is, there’s concrete data to show why this is nothing like the last time.

There’s Still a Shortage of Homes on the Market Today, Not a Surplus

For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to fall dramatically. Supply has increased since the start of this year, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available overall, primarily due to almost 15 years of under-building homes.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to show how the months’ supply of homes available now compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 3.2-months’ supply at the current sales pace, which is significantly lower than the last time. There just isn’t enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did last time, even though some overheated markets may experience slight declines.

Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed Back Then

During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home.

Back then, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices. Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies.

The graph below uses Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to help tell this story. In that index, the higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage. The lower the number, the harder it is. In the latest report, the index fell by 5.4%, indicating standards are tightening.

This graph also shows just how different things are today compared to the spike in credit availability leading up to the crash. Tighter lending standards over the past 14 years have helped prevent a scenario that would lead to a wave of foreclosures like the last time.

The Foreclosure Volume Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash

Another difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been lower since the crash, largely because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM Data Solutions to help paint the picture of how different things are this time:

Not to mention, homeowners today have options they just didn’t have in the housing crisis when so many people owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. Today, many homeowners are equity rich. That equity comes, in large part, from the way home prices have appreciated over time. According to CoreLogic:

“The total average equity per borrower has now reached almost $300,000, the highest in the data series.”

Rick Sharga, Executive VP of Market Intelligence at ATTOM Data, explains the impact this has:

“Very few of the properties entering the foreclosure process have reverted to the lender at the end of the foreclosure. . . . We believe that this may be an indication that borrowers are leveraging their equity and selling their homes rather than risking the loss of their equity in a foreclosure auction.”

 This goes to show homeowners are in a completely different position this time. For those facing challenges today, many have the option to use their equity to sell their house and avoid the foreclosure process.

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, the graphs above should help alleviate your fears. Concrete data and expert insights clearly show why this is nothing like the last time.

Reno-Sparks Market Report October 11, 2022

October 2022 Market Report

** Data in the October 2022 Market Report reflect market activity from September 2022 compared to the previous month and year.  Information is gathered from the Reno-Sparks Association of Realtors® (RSAR) for the Greater Reno-Sparks region via Northern Nevada Regional Multiple Listing Service (www.nnrmls.com).  Data accounts for single-family resale residences only, and excludes townhouses/condos, manufactured/modular and new construction.

  • The Median Sales Price (MSP) in Reno-Sparks combined dropped again for the forth consecutive month, down 5.3% from $565,000 to $535,000. The MSP is just 0.5% higher than in September 2021.

  • The Median Sales Price (MSP) in Reno and Sparks both declined month over month, down 9.3% in Reno and down 2.1% in Sparks.  The MSP in Reno is 1.8% lower compared to September last year and 2% higher in Sparks.

  • Closed Sales inched up again about 2% compared to August 2022 and are down 22.7% compared to September last year. 

  • The graph above illustrates the breakdown of Closed Sales by Price Point.

  • Median Sold Price per Square Foot was $301/SF, down another 2.9% compared to August 2022 and is exactly the same as it was one year ago.

  •  The Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) is the number of months it would take to sell through the available inventory at the current rate of sales.  The MSI in September was 2.9 MSI, meaning that if the rate of sales continued at the same rate as it did in September, the entire housing inventory would be depleted in 2.9 months.  The MSI in September 2022 was 4.6% faster month-over-month and is 160% slower than the same time last year.  Note; a “balanced market” is approximately 5-7 months supply.

  • The MSI in the luxury market ($1.5M+) dropped from 10 MSI to just over 7 MSI month-over-month.

  • Median Days to Contract has increased from 32 to 38, an 18.8% jump month-over-month, and 375% leap year-over-year. However… let’s take a look over the last several years… As noted in previous market reports, the Median Days to Contract is still WELL below the peaks of  2016, 2018, & 2019.

  • The side-by-side graphs above show the changes across all price points for the Median Days to Contract.

  • New Pending Sales decrease about 20% from August to September 2022.  There are also about 30% fewer New Pending Sales compared to last year.

  • 11.5% fewer New Listings hit the market in September 2022 compared to August 2022.  We also saw a 23.4% decline in New Listings compared to last year.

OTHER INTERESTING STATS TO KEEP AN EYE ON:

  • The % of Cash Purchases has dropped 10.3% month-over-month for all single family sales in Reno-Sparks and are 4.4% higher than last year22.8% of all sales in September 2022 were cash.

  • As a result of fatigue and frustration, Sellers have been pulling their homes from the market and/or allowing their listings to expire at the end of their listing period.  We have seen a 148.6% increase in Unsold Listings compared to September 2021.  

  • The number of Active Listings at the end of the month dropped slightly (down 3%) from August to September 2022.  The number of Active Listings at the end of the month is 101% higher than in September 2021 when inventory was at an all-time low.

  • 14% of all sales during September 2022 resulted in closing with prices above list price.  This stat has dropped 7.4% month-over-month and about 70% year-over-year, but is in line with normal activity compared to “pre-COVID” market conditions.

SUMMARY:

    • I have been describing the real estate market as “sloppy” at the moment.  While Sellers become more accustomed to potentially longer listing periods before receiving an acceptable offer, many Buyers have become hesitant about their purchases, with higher mortgage rates in play and fear that the market will continue to drop after they purchase.
    • Fear not!  The rapid appreciation experienced during the first 2 years of the pandemic appears to have ceased, but the market is not dead, the basic principles of supply and demand will still be at play in the long-run.
    • At the moment, the reality is that the housing inventory is still low and the rate of sales at 2.9 Months Supply of Inventory means for most price points, and so the market is still not considered “balanced.” It is technically considered to be a “Seller’s Market.”
    • More important than ever… Sellers must not over-price their properties when listing them for sale. Overpriced properties tend to sit longer and lose more value in the long-run due to the need for eventual significant price drops. Maintenance and proper preparation & staging are critical for successful sales as well.
    • And for Buyers… now is the time to exercise the option for Sellers to provide incentives to you that leverage your home-buying power and actually LOWER your monthly payment. Contact me today so I can explain how to accomplish this!

Do you need expert guidance for your next real estate purchase or sale?  As a Buyer, you have more negotiating power than you have in many years, so this may be the time to leverage your next purchase.  Sellers… Let’s meet to strategize about how to professionally prepare and price your property strategically in our marketplace.  I am here for you, whatever your real estate needs are.  Email me at dhallerbach@intero.com or reach by cell at 775-233-0682 so we can discuss the best plan for YOU!

~Denise Hallerbach, Broker-Owner, INTERO RENO.

 

 

In-The-Know Real Estate Blog October 5, 2022

What Experts Say Will Happen with Home Prices Next Year

Experts are starting to make their 2023 home price forecasts. As they do, most agree homes will continue to gain value, just at a slower pace. Over the past couple of years, home prices have risen at an unsustainable rate, leaving many to wonder how long it would last. If you’re asking yourself: “What’s ahead for the price of my home,” know that experts are now answering this question, and its welcome news for homeowners who may have been led by the media to believe their home would lose value.

Historically, home prices have appreciated at a rate near 4%. For 2023, the average of six major forecasters noted below is 2.5%. While one, Zelman & Associates, is calling for depreciation, the other five are calling for appreciation. The graph below outlines each expert forecast to show where they project home prices are going in the coming year.

Two factors should contribute to driving home prices upward. First, the undersupply of homes on the market is an issue we continue to face in this country. We still don’t have enough homes on the market for the number of people that want to buy them. To further that point, we’re still in a sellers’ market nationally, and in that scenario, home prices tend to appreciate.

Second, millennials are moving through their peak home-buying years. Since they’re the largest demographic behind the baby boomers, demand isn’t going away any time soon.

Bottom Line

Experts are calling for home prices to appreciate next year, although at a slower pace than the previous three years. The reason for this is simple. The dynamics of supply and demand are playing out in real estate and will continue for many years to come.

In-The-Know Real Estate Blog September 29, 2022

A Crucial First Step: Mortgage Pre-Approval

 

In-The-Know Real Estate Blog September 29, 2022

Watching the Stock Market? Check the Value of Your Home for Good News.

While watching the stock market recently may have started to feel pretty challenging, checking the value of your home should come as welcome relief in this volatile time. If you’re a homeowner, your net worth got a big boost over the past few years thanks to rising home prices. And that increase in your wealth came in the form of home equity. Here’s how it works.

Equity is the current value of your home minus what you owe on the loan. Because there was a significant imbalance between the number of homes available for sale and the number of buyers looking to make a purchase over the past few years, home prices appreciated substantially. And while rising inventory and mortgage rates have cooled the market some in recent months, home prices nationally remain strong.

That’s why, according to the latest Homeowner Equity Insights from CoreLogic, the average homeowner equity has grown by $60,000 over the last 12 months. While that’s the national number, if you want to know what happened, on average, over the past year in your area, look at the map below from CoreLogic:

Why This Is So Important Right Now

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), helps explain why this matters so much today:

“. . . the decline in the stock market has dented overall net wealth. It has fallen by $6 trillion from the first to the second quarter. Only housing wealth has held on, with homeowners’ real estate wealth (home value minus mortgage balance) rising by $1.2 trillion.”

While equity helps increase your overall net worth, it can also help you achieve other goals like buying your next home. When you sell your current house, the equity you built up comes back to you in the sale, and it may be just what you need to cover a large portion – if not all – of the down payment on your next home.

Bottom Line

There’s volatility in today’s stock market, but home equity is still incredibly strong. To find out just how much equity you have in your current home, let’s connect.

Reno-Sparks Market Report September 11, 2022

September 2022 Market Report

** Data in this the September 2022 Market Report reflect market activity from AUGUST 2022 compared to the previous month and year.  Information is gathered from the Reno-Sparks Association of Realtors® (RSAR) for the Greater Reno-Sparks region via Northern Nevada Regional Multiple Listing Service (www.nnrmls.com).  Data accounts for single-family resale residences only, and excludes townhouses/condos, manufactured/modular and new construction.

  • The Median Sales Price (MSP) in Reno-Sparks dropped slightly for the third consecutive month, down 1.5% from $574,510 to $565,686. However, the MSP is still 6.7% higher than in August 2021.

  • While the Median Sales Price (MSP) in Reno ticked up 0.7% month-over-month, the MSP in Sparks fell 4.1% to $524,901 compared to last month.  The MSI is still 8.4% and 5.6% higher respectively compared to August last year.

  • Closed Sales inched up about 2% compared to July 2022 and are down 22.2% compared to August last year. 

  • Median Sold Price per Square Foot was $311/SF, down 2.8% compared to July 2022 and up 3.3% compared to last year.

  •  The Months Supply of Inventory is the number of months it would take to sell through the available inventory at the current rate of sales.  Though the Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) shifted from 0.8 MSI to 3.2 MSI over the last several months, August’s MSI was nearly 10% lower that July’s MSI.  During August of 2021, the MSI was 0.8 MSI representing a market that was a 180% higher rate of sales compared to August 2022.  Bear in mind, that a true “balanced market” is approximately 5-7 months supply, so though the market has shifted toward a “Seller’s Market,” we are still not at a fully balanced market.

  • As observed in the chart above, the faster pace of the $200k to $999k price ranges explains how the Months Supply of Inventory has hovered at about 3 MSI despite thte MSI in the Luxury Market leaping to over 10 MSI.

  • Median Days to Contract has increased from 25 to 32, a 28% increase month-over-month, and a whopping 433.3% increase year-over-year. However… let’s take a look over the last several years… The median Days to Contract is still WELL below the peaks of 2013, 2016, 2018, & 2019.

  • The Luxury Market showed properties taking about 62 days from listing to receiving an acceptable offer.  This is approximately double the Median of all price points and likely the reason that we saw a 28% increase month-over-month and a 433.3% increase in Days to Contract year-over-year.

  • New Pending Sales increased 29.2% from July to August 2022.  There are 13% fewer New Pending Sales compared to last year.

  • 15.8% fewer New Listings hit the market in August 2022 compared to July 2022.  We saw a 20.2% decline in New Listings compared to last year as well.

OTHER INTERESTING STATS TO KEEP AN EYE ON:

  • Keeping an eye on the distressed sale market, at this point, we are still NOT seeing that recent market activity is causing more properties to be sold as foreclosures.  Short-sales are few and far between due to the great amount of equity many home owners currently have in their properties.

  • The % of Cash Purchases has increased 3.6% month-over-month for all single family sales in Reno-Sparks and are 2.5% higher than last year. 26.1% of all sales in August 2022 were cash.

  • August 2022 saw 32.3% more Withdrawn and Expired Listings compared to the previous month, and a staggering 203.4% more compared to August last year. This is an indication that many Sellers are fatigued and frustrated with not receiving an acceptable offer during their listing period.

  • With Pending Sales jumping up in August, we naturally experienced a slight decrease in the number of Active Listings, posting 8.1% fewer compared to July 2022.  The active inventory was 117.4% higher than August 2021.

  • 15.6% of all sales during August 2022 resulted in closing prices above list price.  Historically, statistic is actually more normal compared to the market madness and overbidding we experienced during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

SUMMARY:

    • Over the last several months, the real estate market globally has shifted, with more days to contract, price reductions and cash incentives for Buyers.
    • The rapid appreciation experienced during the first 2 years of the pandemic appears to have ceased, but the market is not dead.
    • On the bright side, Buyers have more opportunities to place offers with little to no competition and potentially receive cash from Sellers to exercise as credits toward closing costs or mortgage rate buy-downs.
    • Mortgages rates have popped back up to around 6% for qualified buyers.  Though this does seem high compared to the historic low rates in 2020 and 2021, Buyers can be thankful that rates are not 18.63%, the peak back in 1981.  It could be much worse!
    • More important than ever, Sellers must not over-price their properties when listing them for sale. Overpriced properties tend to sit longer and lose more value in the long-run due to the need for eventual significant price drops. Maintenance and proper preparation & staging are critical for successful sales as well.

Do you need expert guidance for your next real estate purchase or sale?  As a Buyer, you have more negotiating power than you have in many years, so this may be the time to leverage your next purchase.  Sellers… Let’s meet to strategize about how to professionally prepare and price your property strategically in our marketplace.  I am here for you, whatever your real estate needs are.  Email me at dhallerbach@intero.com or reach by cell at 775-233-0682 so we can discuss the best plan for YOU!

~Denise Hallerbach, Broker-Owner, INTERO RENO.