With all the headlines and talk in the media about the shift in the housing market, you might be thinking this is a housing bubble. It’s only natural for those thoughts to creep in that make you think it could be a repeat of what took place in 2008. But the good news is, there’s concrete data to show why this is nothing like the last time.
There’s Still a Shortage of Homes on the Market Today, Not a Surplus
For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to fall dramatically. Supply has increased since the start of this year, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available overall, primarily due to almost 15 years of under-building homes.
The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to show how the months’ supply of homes available now compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 3.2-months’ supply at the current sales pace, which is significantly lower than the last time. There just isn’t enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did last time, even though some overheated markets may experience slight declines.
Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed Back Then
During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home.
Back then, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices. Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies.
The graph below uses Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to help tell this story. In that index, the higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage. The lower the number, the harder it is. In the latest report, the index fell by 5.4%, indicating standards are tightening.
This graph also shows just how different things are today compared to the spike in credit availability leading up to the crash. Tighter lending standards over the past 14 years have helped prevent a scenario that would lead to a wave of foreclosures like the last time.
The Foreclosure Volume Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash
Another difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been lower since the crash, largely because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM Data Solutions to help paint the picture of how different things are this time:
Not to mention, homeowners today have options they just didn’t have in the housing crisis when so many people owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. Today, many homeowners are equity rich. That equity comes, in large part, from the way home prices have appreciated over time. According to CoreLogic:
“The total average equity per borrower has now reached almost $300,000, the highest in the data series.”
Rick Sharga, Executive VP of Market Intelligence at ATTOM Data, explains the impact this has:
“Very few of the properties entering the foreclosure process have reverted to the lender at the end of the foreclosure. . . . We believe that this may be an indication that borrowers are leveraging their equity and selling their homes rather than risking the loss of their equity in a foreclosure auction.”
This goes to show homeowners are in a completely different position this time. For those facing challenges today, many have the option to use their equity to sell their house and avoid the foreclosure process.
If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, the graphs above should help alleviate your fears. Concrete data and expert insights clearly show why this is nothing like the last time.
** Data in this the September 2022 Market Report reflect market activity from AUGUST 2022 compared to the previous month and year. Information is gathered from the Reno-Sparks Association of Realtors® (RSAR) for the Greater Reno-Sparks region via Northern Nevada Regional Multiple Listing Service (www.nnrmls.com). Data accounts for single-family resale residences only, and excludes townhouses/condos, manufactured/modular and new construction.
- The Median Sales Price (MSP) in Reno-Sparks dropped slightly for the third consecutive month, down 1.5% from $574,510 to $565,686. However, the MSP is still 6.7% higher than in August 2021.
- While the Median Sales Price (MSP) in Reno ticked up 0.7% month-over-month, the MSP in Sparks fell 4.1% to $524,901 compared to last month. The MSI is still 8.4% and 5.6% higher respectively compared to August last year.
- Closed Sales inched up about 2% compared to July 2022 and are down 22.2% compared to August last year.
- Median Sold Price per Square Foot was $311/SF, down 2.8% compared to July 2022 and up 3.3% compared to last year.
- The Months Supply of Inventory is the number of months it would take to sell through the available inventory at the current rate of sales. Though the Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) shifted from 0.8 MSI to 3.2 MSI over the last several months, August’s MSI was nearly 10% lower that July’s MSI. During August of 2021, the MSI was 0.8 MSI representing a market that was a 180% higher rate of sales compared to August 2022. Bear in mind, that a true “balanced market” is approximately 5-7 months supply, so though the market has shifted toward a “Seller’s Market,” we are still not at a fully balanced market.
- As observed in the chart above, the faster pace of the $200k to $999k price ranges explains how the Months Supply of Inventory has hovered at about 3 MSI despite thte MSI in the Luxury Market leaping to over 10 MSI.
- Median Days to Contract has increased from 25 to 32, a 28% increase month-over-month, and a whopping 433.3% increase year-over-year. However… let’s take a look over the last several years… The median Days to Contract is still WELL below the peaks of 2013, 2016, 2018, & 2019.
- The Luxury Market showed properties taking about 62 days from listing to receiving an acceptable offer. This is approximately double the Median of all price points and likely the reason that we saw a 28% increase month-over-month and a 433.3% increase in Days to Contract year-over-year.
- New Pending Sales increased 29.2% from July to August 2022. There are 13% fewer New Pending Sales compared to last year.
- 15.8% fewer New Listings hit the market in August 2022 compared to July 2022. We saw a 20.2% decline in New Listings compared to last year as well.
OTHER INTERESTING STATS TO KEEP AN EYE ON:
- Keeping an eye on the distressed sale market, at this point, we are still NOT seeing that recent market activity is causing more properties to be sold as foreclosures. Short-sales are few and far between due to the great amount of equity many home owners currently have in their properties.
- The % of Cash Purchases has increased 3.6% month-over-month for all single family sales in Reno-Sparks and are 2.5% higher than last year. 26.1% of all sales in August 2022 were cash.
- August 2022 saw 32.3% more Withdrawn and Expired Listings compared to the previous month, and a staggering 203.4% more compared to August last year. This is an indication that many Sellers are fatigued and frustrated with not receiving an acceptable offer during their listing period.
- With Pending Sales jumping up in August, we naturally experienced a slight decrease in the number of Active Listings, posting 8.1% fewer compared to July 2022. The active inventory was 117.4% higher than August 2021.
- 15.6% of all sales during August 2022 resulted in closing prices above list price. Historically, statistic is actually more normal compared to the market madness and overbidding we experienced during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Over the last several months, the real estate market globally has shifted, with more days to contract, price reductions and cash incentives for Buyers.
- The rapid appreciation experienced during the first 2 years of the pandemic appears to have ceased, but the market is not dead.
- On the bright side, Buyers have more opportunities to place offers with little to no competition and potentially receive cash from Sellers to exercise as credits toward closing costs or mortgage rate buy-downs.
- Mortgages rates have popped back up to around 6% for qualified buyers. Though this does seem high compared to the historic low rates in 2020 and 2021, Buyers can be thankful that rates are not 18.63%, the peak back in 1981. It could be much worse!
- More important than ever, Sellers must not over-price their properties when listing them for sale. Overpriced properties tend to sit longer and lose more value in the long-run due to the need for eventual significant price drops. Maintenance and proper preparation & staging are critical for successful sales as well.
Do you need expert guidance for your next real estate purchase or sale? As a Buyer, you have more negotiating power than you have in many years, so this may be the time to leverage your next purchase. Sellers… Let’s meet to strategize about how to professionally prepare and price your property strategically in our marketplace. I am here for you, whatever your real estate needs are. Email me at firstname.lastname@example.org or reach by cell at 775-233-0682 so we can discuss the best plan for YOU!
~Denise Hallerbach, Broker-Owner, INTERO RENO.
If you’re thinking about selling your house, you may have heard about the housing market slowing down in recent months. While it’s still a sellers’ market, the peak frenzy the market saw over the past two years has cooled some. If you’re asking yourself if you’ve missed your chance to sell your house and make a move, the good news is you haven’t – motivated buyers are still out there. But you do need to price your house right for today’s market. Here’s why.
As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“Homes priced right are selling very quickly, but homes priced too high are deterring prospective buyers.”
It’s true buyer demand has slowed over the past few months as higher mortgage rates made it more expensive to buy a home. The result is fewer bidding wars and less competition among buyers (see visual below):
But don’t forget – that’s compared to the severely overheated market we saw over the past two years. According to the latest Confidence Index from NAR:
“. . . 39% of homes sold above list price, down from 51% a month ago and 50% a year ago.”
While this is a slower pace than even one month ago, serious buyers are still actively in the market, and they’re buying homes that are priced right. In fact, the Confidence Index also notes the average home is selling in just 14 days.
If you’re aiming to sell your house, be sure you’re working with your agent to price it for today’s housing market. As buyer demand softens, it’s important to understand this isn’t the same market as last year. It’s not even the same market as just a few months ago. But it is still a sellers’ market.
If you’re ready to sell your house, seek the advice of a real estate professional. In some cases, you’ll need to adjust your expectations accordingly to meet the market where it is today. Selma Hepp, Interim Lead, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains what’s happening and what it means when you sell:
“Signs of a broader slowdown in the housing market are evident, . . . This is in line with our previous expectations and given the notable cooling of buyer demand due to higher mortgage rates. . . . Nevertheless, buyers still remain interested, which is keeping the market competitive — particularly for attractive homes that are properly priced.”
While the housing market has cooled from its overheated frenzy, it’s still a sellers’ market. Let’s connect so you understand what’s happening with buyer demand and home prices in our local area as you get ready to enter the market.
When you make a move, you want to sell your house for the highest price possible. That might be why many homeowners are eager to list in today’s sellers’ market. After all, with record-low inventory and high buyer demand, many homes are selling for more than asking price. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows 46% of homes are selling above list price today.
But even in a market like we have now, working with an agent to set the right asking price is critical, as pricing it too high or too low could have a negative impact on your final sale. Here’s why.
Pricing Your House Right Is Crucial Even in a Sellers’ Market
The price you set for your house sends a message to potential buyers. Price it too low and you might raise questions about your home’s condition or lead buyers to assume something is wrong with the property. Not to mention, you could leave money on the table, which decreases your future buying power if you undervalue your house.
On the other hand, price it too high and you run the risk of deterring buyers. When that happens, you may have to do a price drop to try to re-ignite interest in your house when it sits on the market for a while. But be aware that a price drop can be seen as a red flag for some buyers who will wonder why the price was reduced and what that means about the home.
In other words, think of pricing your home as a target. Your goal is to aim directly for the center – not too high, not too low, but right at market value. Pricing your house fairly based on market conditions increases the chance you’ll have more buyers who are interested in purchasing it. That makes it more likely you’ll see a bidding war, too. And when a bidding war happens, you’ll likely get an even higher final sale price. Plus, when homes are priced right, they tend to sell quickly.
To get a look into the potential downsides of over or underpricing your house and the perks that come with pricing it at market value, see the chart below:
Lean on a Professional’s Expertise To Price Your House Right
There are several factors that go into pricing your house and balancing them is the key. That’s why it’s important to lean on an expert real estate advisor when you’re ready to move. A local real estate advisor is knowledgeable about:
- The value of homes in your neighborhood
- The current demand for houses in today’s market
- The condition of your house and how it affects the value
A real estate professional will balance these factors to make sure the price of your house makes the best first impression and gives you the greatest return on your investment in the end.
Even in a sellers’ market, pricing your house right is critical. Don’t rely on guesswork. Let’s connect to make sure your house is perfectly priced.